Arsenal Are The Real Deal
The surprise rise of the Gunners was right under our noses the whole time.
Arsenal are in a really good position. They’ve been top of the league for the entire season, are already qualified for the UEFA Champions League for the first time since the 2016/17 season, and have a very good chance to win their first league title in almost 20 years if they can fend off the robust challenge of Manchester City. However, regardless of whether or not they manage to finish the job, one thing is clear— this is a team that is here to stay.
Despite this Arsenal team— the youngest squad in the league, performing on par with the Invincibles, it’s easy to dismiss this season’s performances as a fluke, due to the obvious decline of top 4 regulars Liverpool and Chelsea. An often used, yet incorrect argument is that the quality of the league has diminished greatly with the lesser teams earning more points than normal and a relegation battle spanning the entire bottom half of the table. However, to think this would be extremely shortsighted and dismissive of both the immense quality of the league, and the amazing progress Mikel Arteta has made with this team over the past two years.
The Premier League is easily the dominant monetary force in world football. Newly promoted Nottingham Forest, Leeds United, and Newcastle United have spent the most in Europe in the previous summer window to bolster their squads. The level of coaching is at an unfathomable level, some of the best managers in the top 5 European leagues have come to England to manage mid-to-lower tier teams, including, but not limited to Unai Emery at Aston Villa, Julen Lopetegui at Wolves, Jesse Marsch, formerly of Leeds, Roberto De Zerbi of Brighton. The Seagulls, as well as Newcastle, who were fighting relegation, are now chasing European football.
Arteta took over Arsenal in December, 2019, and shepherded the team to a lacklustre 8th place, which was still an improvement on the 11th place position he took over in. The 2020/21 season saw a similar final finish but a much overlooked fact is the performance after a two-month winless run, which totally derailed their season. After plugging a gaping squad hole— an a ttacking midfielder— Arsenal went on to be the fourth best performing side in the league.
That progress was furthered and proven sustainable in the 2021/22 season, where major investment strengthened the team, but somehow flew under the radar of fans and pundits alike, who all used Arsenal’s failure to make the Champions League places as an indicatior that the team was not good enough to compete, ignoring the fact that major injuries to key players in the run-in ruined their chances of finishing in the UCL places, and all the metrics that said otherwise. Arsenal had maintained 3rd place form for the entire 2022 calendar year.
For a sustained period from December to March in the 2012/2022 season, before the team was ambushed by injuries, the team was 5th in expected goals (xG), third in expected goals against (xGA) and also 4th in expected points (xPts), meaning they boasted one of the best attacking and defensive metrics in the league.
Expected Goals (xG)
Expected Goals Against (xGA)
Expected Points (xPts)
Key depth signings and the introduction of seasoned winners, Gabriel Jesus and Olexandr Zinchenko from Manchester City have boosted this Arsenal team to title contention. Whether or not they will be able to complete the final game of the season still atop the league is unknown. What we do know however, is this season is not an anomaly. We will be talking about Arsenal for seasons to come.